User blogs
Fed’s go-slow approach likely to keep USD weaker
A sleepy mountain resort amid the ski fields of Wyoming becomes the focus of the currency world’s attention for a few days every year. It’s host to an economic symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City that attracts central bankers and finance ministers from around the world to prognosticate on the big issues of the day. This year’s event was held virtually due to Covid-19 but it was scrutinised just as closely by market participants.To get more news about KCM柯尔凯思, you can visit wikifx.com official website.
Jackson Hole is known for wild variations in temperature, but in his keynote, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell served up a “not too hot, not too cold” speech that markets lapped up.
Powell had been trying to find the middle ground amid a Federal Reserve Board that is becoming increasingly split between hawks – those who believe interest rates should rise – and doves who believe they shouldn’t.
The hawks are particularly concerned that the continued use of quantitative easing (QE), a method of purchasing bonds to stimulate the economy – must end soon. Otherwise, the central bank could “really get into trouble” if it followed a “go-slow” approach to fighting inflation.1
But the doves feel that moving too fast, too soon could derail the US’s economic recovery, particularly as the virulent Delta strain sweeps through the country.
The market had expected Powell to side more with hawks and give a clearer view of when the Fed would start ‘tapering’ QE and putting upward pressure on interest rates. Indeed, so sure were hedge funds that Powell’s statement would cause the US dollar to rise that they invested heavily in the outcome, pouring $US8.4 billion into the US dollar in the lead to the symposium, compared to just $800 million the previous week.2
It was the culmination of a 3% rise in the greenback against a basket of currencies over the last three months, and an indicator of the strengthening of the US economy relative to peers.
Instead, Powell split the middle between the doves and the hawks by flagging the need for tapering but without setting a timetable for when.
As OFX Treasurer Sebastian Schinkel notes, “Powell somehow managed to acknowledge both sides of the equation and although he conceded on tapering, he made it clear that it will not translate into interest rate hikes ‘for which we have articulated a different and more stringent test’”.
That sent the US stock market to new highs and caused bond yields to fall as investors cheered the prospect of continued stimulus. (A higher stock market and lower bond yields are typically both correlated to a lower US dollar.)First, the Delta variant continues to impact the US economy, with the Southeast particularly badly affected. Many workers still haven’t returned to offices, meaning central business districts still haven’t fully recovered. Consumer sentiment recorded its biggest fall in a decade3 in August as the high infection rate quashed hopes of a full reopening.
A record number of job openings is also crimping the economy, as workers continue to stay home out of fear for their health, or because unemployment benefits continue to be generous relative to pre-Covid.4 The Federal Reserve has stated that it will keep rates accommodative until it sees the economy return to “maximum employment”5, a subjective term which is more based on art than science. Disappointing August employment figures indicated the Fed is still yet to reach that target. That hiring gap along with supply chain issues due to Delta is filtering through to higher inflation. Fuel, food and many services are seeing price spikes,6 another factor behind tumbling consumer sentiment.
So, the Federal Reserve needs to determine whether rising inflation is an issue that will need to be controlled with interest rates or if it is just a transitory phase as the economy returns to normal.
Growth rates remain high at 6.6% annualised, according to the latest quarterly data and in a normal world the Fed would be putting on the brakes by raising interest rates. That would likely push the US dollar higher relative to peers but, for now, it appears the Fed is less worried about the economy getting too hot than the prospect of it going cold.
ADP Non-Farm Employment and Quarterly Final GDP data released on Wednesday were rather negative for the US economy, adding more pressure to the dollar. US treasury yields also declined on Wednesday, with the 10-year treasury yields falling to approximately 2.3%, from a two-year high of 2.5% the day before.
In the past week, the dollar had gained strength, boosted by hawkish Fed rhetoric. In a recent speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted that the Fed may perform a steeper rate hike in the future, going above the expected 25 base points. Other Fed members have similarly shown signs of encouraging a more hawkish fiscal policy, increasing the odds of a 50 bp rate hike at the Central Bank’s next meeting in May. Markets are anticipating total rate hikes of 175 base points within the year to tackle soaring inflation rates.
The dollar had dropped in the wake of the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting in March, in which the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 base points, bringing its interest rate to 0.50%. The US Central bank is attempting to bring down inflation that has been rising at the fastest rate in 40 years. The 25-base point rate hike though was considered conservative and had already been priced in by markets. Recent statements by FOMC members though show a shift towards a more aggressively hawkish policy.
Monthly Core PCE Price Index, Unemployment Claims, Annual Challenger Job Cuts, and Chicago PMI are scheduled to be released on Thursday for the dollar and may cause some volatility in the currency. In addition, FOMC Member Williams is due to deliver a speech, which may affect the currency, as Fed rhetoric in the past few days was one of the main factors that have been driving the dollar up.
The EUR/USD rate climbed above 1.116 on Wednesday, breaking through the 1.113 level resistance, as peace talks sparked hopes of a resolution of the crisis in Ukraine. The safe-haven dollar retreated, while the Euro regained some of its lost ground. If the currency pair goes up, it may encounter resistance at 1.148, while if it declines, support may be found at the 1.080 level.
On Wednesday, consumer sentiment and inflation data released for the Eurozone were mostly negative for the EU economy, putting pressure on the Euro. Reports of de-escalation of the crisis in Ukraine reduced the appeal of safe-haven currencies and boosted riskier assets.
In addition, ECB President Lagarde delivered a speech at an event hosted by the Bank of Cyprus on Wednesday. Lagarde stated in her speech that the growth of the Eurozone economy has been stalled by the war in Ukraine and that inflation will likely rise even further. Lagarde has also stressed that the ECB needs to remain flexible and may alter its monetary policy in response to unforeseen inflationary and economic pressures arising from the war in Ukraine, but stated that the ECB will move gradually towards normalizing its fiscal policy. The ECB is trying to avert a dangerous economic effect known as stagflation, the mix of economic stagnation and high inflation rates.
The ECB has been pursuing a more cautious fiscal policy than other major Central Banks, although it has recently turned towards a more hawkish direction. The ECB has announced its decision to wind down its bond-purchasing program sooner than expected, placing the end of the bond-buying program in the third quarter of 2022, if financial conditions in the Eurozone allow it.
In addition, the European Central Bank has announced that it does not plan to raise its benchmark interest rate before the end of its bond-buying program in the third quarter of 2022. Many market analysts predict that the ECB will raise its interest rate by at least 30 base points in Q4 of 2022 and some predict a steeper rate hike of 50 bps, although so far, the ECB has been reluctant to move towards a rate hike. As the Fed and the BOE have already raised their benchmark interest rates, the Euro remains at a disadvantage from the difference in interest rates.
On Thursday, several indicators are scheduled to be released for the Euro, including French Consumer Spending, French Preliminary CPI, German Unemployment Change, Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate, Italian Prelim CPI, EU Unemployment Rate. These are employment and inflation indicators for some of the Eurozone’s leading economies and the Eurozone as a whole and may affect the currency.
Following the freezing of its operations and client withdrawals amid the arrest of several members of its senior management, offshore Retail FX broker Samtrade FX has issued a statement (see full text below) noting that it has filed for its corporate and operating entities to be placed in "judicial management" - the Singapore equivalent of administration.To get more news about intrgroup, you can visit wikifx.com official website.
The "interim judicial managers" for Samtrade FX will be former PwC partner Goh Thien Phong and his GTP Advisory PAC, which specializes in corporate restructuring and insolvency, and Chan Kheng Tek from PwC Singapore.
From our perspective, the application means that Samtrade FX's management (at least the ones who aren't currently incarcerated) believe that the company's problems with the Singapore regulator and police are not likely to be resolved in the near term, requiring outside managers for the company.
It also means that client assets at Samtrade FX are not likely to be unfrozen any time soon. The judicial managers are there to find and secure client assets, match them against what is supposed to be there based on company records and client claims, and then (eventually) return money to Samtrade FX's clients.
No mention was made of Samtrade FX's ASIC licensed operations in Australia, Samtrade (Australia) Pty Ltd, which as far as we can tell remain intact.Samtrade FX was raided in late December, following a joint investigation by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and the Singapore Police Force. Three of the company's management team were arrested, including (we believe) the company's CEO and controlling shareholder, Sam Goh.
The action was taken as Samtrade FX was operating out of Singapore without holding a financial services license in the country. The authorities also noted that there is reason to suspect that irregular trading activities have been carried out on the platform.
FILING OF COURT APPLICATION FOR JUDICIAL MANAGEMENT AND APPOINTMENT OF INTERIM JUDICIAL MANAGERS
1. Reference is made to our corporate statement dated 3 January 2022.
2. Our counsel, Messrs Rajah & Tann Singapore LLP, have proceeded to file court applications with the High Court of Singapore on behalf of the following entities to place them into judicial management on 20 January 2022:and to appoint Mr Goh Thien Phong from GTP Advisory PAC and Mr Chan Kheng Tek from PricewaterhouseCoopers Advisory Services Pte Ltd jointly and severally as interim judicial managers.
3. We will provide further updates after the Court has fixed a hearing date for the respective applications.
4. Further updates on material developments will also be provided, as and when appropriate.
Although earlier versions of MetaTrader date back to 2002, the ever so popular MetaTrader4, or as it is often called MT4 was released in 2005 and has been updated numerous times since then. The first MetaTrader5 or MT5 was launched in 2010 and has been operating in parallel with MT4. However, trader loyalty towards MT4 remains solid and the large majority of brokers around the world offer it to their customers.
A 2020 survey identifies MT4 as the most popular trading platform in the world, with a staggering 57% of survey respondents stating that it was their platform of choice. Unsurprisingly the second most popular trading platform is MT5.So, what makes the two MetaTrader iterations so popular? And what are the differences between the two?
The short answer is that the MetaTrader platforms are easy and simple to use. We have all tried to use tools that feel more overwhelming than helpful or useful which leads to frustration and seeking other options. The MetaTrader platforms provide an unparalleled user experience along with a sleek and professional interface that enables traders to conduct their activities effectively. Furthermore, the platforms are known for their unfaltering reliability which is an essential feature in a sector that revolves around financially valuable transactions.
A crucial feature that made MT4 very popular is the availability of the Expert Advisors (EAs) programs that enable traders to customize monitoring and trading parameters according to their trading goals. This is coupled with the fact that MT4 has three execution modes (Instant Execution, Execution on Request, and Execution by Market) which give traders the ability to act swiftly or in a staggered manner to accomplish their objectives.
We must not forget that MT4 is available free of charge, in multiple languages, and fully functional on multiple devices with different operating systems.
At this point, you might be asking what distinguishes MT4 from MT5 and which option would be the best for your trading needs. Both platforms provide state-of-the-art trading experiences, however, there are a few differences. For instance, a number of markets that are available on MT5 are not available on MT4. This could be a benefit to more experienced traders seeking to trade across very specific markets. MT5 also provides more chart timeframes and indicators which are very useful for those traders seeking more in-depth market analysis. The MT5 also offers a built-in economic calendar to help traders stay on track with key events. It must also be said that MT4 uses a simpler programming language (MQL4) that traders can use to create custom EAs and indicators which might make it more accessible to more inexperienced traders. On the other hand, MT5 gives a higher level of flexibility for traders seeking to create more sophisticated commands.
So ultimately, your choice between the two will depend on the trading objectives that you are setting out for yourself and at which point of your trading trajectory you are on.
Ready to enhance your trading experience? Vital Markets is the cutting-edge forex broker that offers you MT4 and MT5 trading for desktop or mobile devices, Andriod, or iOS. It’s time to trade with the leaders of the pack. Sign up here today.
It's the beginning of a new month which means that the Non-Farm Payroll figures will be released this week by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The latest US jobs data for January will be released at 1:30pm London time on Friday.To get more news about tiomarket review, you can visit wikifx.com official website.
Why is the announcement important?
Non-Farm Payroll is one of the most closely watched indicators. It is considered the most wide-ranging measure of job creation in the United States. An increase in the non-farm payrolls would suggest rising employment and potential inflation pressure - which would mean a possible rate increase by the Federal Reserve. A decline would indicate a slowing economy - which would mean a possible interest rate cut. The measure accounts for around 80% of the workers who contribute to the Gross Domestic Product. It does not include those who work on farms and also excludes private households, non-profit workers, and government employees.
Expectations
In February, the total Non-Farm payroll employment increased by 678k, above analyst forecast of 400k. The unemployment rate decreased by 0.2% to 3.8%. Most significant job gains were in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, health care, and construction.
Analysts are expecting 490k jobs added in March. The unemployment rate is expected to decrease by 0.1% to 3.7%.
We understand that these parties have offered to help investors with, amongst other things, withdrawal requests, password resets and other account security related matters.
Please do not to respond to any such emails or otherwise communicate with these parties, and do not provide these parties with any personal or financial information. Also, avoid clicking on links included in any such emails, or the attachments, as doing so may result in malware or a virus being loaded on the recipient’s computer.
Kindly note that the IJMs will not ask you for your personal data via phone call.
The USD/JPY retreated on Wednesday from Monday’s highs of 125.1, its highest level since 2015, falling to the 121.3 level. If the USD/JPY rises again, resistance may be found at the 2015 high of 125.8. If the USD/JPY declines, support might be found at 114.8 and further down at 113.4.
The dollar lost ground in the past couple of days, as reports of a potential de-escalation of the Russia – Ukraine crisis have put pressure on the safe-haven dollar. The yen is also considered a safe-haven currency but has not been affected as much as other safe-haven assets by the crisis in Ukraine, and many investors have been doubting its safe-haven status.
In the past few months, the Yen has been affected primarily by the BOJ’s fiscal policy. In its latest monetary policy meeting in March, the Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-accommodating monetary policy and did not raise its negative interest rate from -0.10%. The difference in interest rates with other major Central Banks, especially with the Fed and the BOE, puts the Yen at a disadvantage driving its price down.
The BOJ Summary of Opinions was published on Tuesday, which includes the Central Bank’s projection for inflation and economic growth and is the primary tool the BOJ uses to communicate its economic and monetary projections to investors. In the report, Japanese policymakers stated that inflationary pressures are building in Japan, with inflation growing to 1%, which is still far from the BOJ’s 2% target. Bank of Japan board members seemed skeptical about the rise in inflation though, expressing doubts on whether the rise was sustainable. They stated that the rise in inflation rates would likely prove to be temporary, and was mainly due to the rising cost of imports, especially energy-related imports. Policymakers concluded that the BOJ must continue its ultra-accommodating fiscal policy, to support the economy.
Japan’s core CPI may climb around 2% in April, similar to other countries that are expected to see a peak in inflation rates near the same time, largely due to increased oil prices. Japan is a net energy importer and the current energy crisis is damaging the country’s terms of trade and overall economic health. The rising cost of oil is causing goods prices to rise in Japan, with oil imports accounting for 80% of the country’s oil consumption.
The BOJ stated on Monday that it would buy an unlimited amount of Japanese Government Bonds with a maturity of up to ten years at 0.25% to stop rising global yields from pulling yields higher. Near the end of last week, Japan’s treasury yields rose sharply, with yields on 10-year Japanese government bonds climbing to a six-year high of 0.24%. Japanese bond yields had been on the decline for some time, and rising U.S. yields had taken the spread between the two markets to its widest since August 2019.
We are excited to announce the launch of our new trading information center - FP Markets Traders Hub.To get more news about tiomarkets deposit, you can visit wikifx.com official website.
Traders Hub is a rich source of fresh and informative content and daily technical and fundamental analysis to assist all levels of trader from beginner to advanced.
Click here to discover the following :
- Technical Analysis - Daily and Weekly Analysis from our team of industry experts
- Fundamental Analysis - Daily and Weekly Analysis from our team of industry experts
- Trading Knowledge - A wide range of articles, ebooks, and videos for you increase your knowledge
- Company News - Find out all the latest news on FP Markets
This is designed to further enhance our offering and continues with our commitment to provide our traders with unparalleled trading conditions.
Please also keep up to date with all the latest trading content on our social media channels.
I include Target 1 (T1) and Target 2 (T2) levels (or ranges) in my analysis so that you have an idea of how far the market would probably move if price action supports my trade ideas. The target one is a high probability target while the next target is further away and therefore there’s a greater risk that the market doesn’t reach the level. While I don’t provide investment advice my analysis helps you in your own market analysis and then you can decide how to trade the markets.
GBPUSD is creating higher lows and could continue to do so as long as it stays above the 1.3110 support level. My trade idea is to look for long trades above the 1.3110 low with the T1 at 1.3134 and T2 at 1.3240. As usual price action has to confirm the trade idea. If it doesn’t, it’s better to stay in cash. Alternative scenario: GBPUSD breaks the 1.3110 support and trades down to 1.3040 – 1.3060 area.
GBPNZD is consolidating above a 1.9046 support. This opens up a possibility for an intraday rally and this is why I’m interested in long trades in this market today. Above the 1.9046 my T1 for GBPNZD is at 1.9185 and the T2 at 1.9360. Alternative scenario: GBPNZD breaks below the latest low at 1.9021 which increases the likelihood of the market moving down to 1.8972.
CADJPY is still trending higher. I said on Friday that if the resistance at the latest high is successfully cleared then the market could rally to 95.00 – 95.50. The market is now trading well above that high and trending higher so the analysis is still valid. Fundamentals haven’t changed either. Alternative scenario: CADJPY doesn’t respect the supports and breaks the 94.53 support. This would probably take the market down to 94.10 or so again.
USOIL hit my targets and continued higher. Oil is trading right at the resistance level of 107.52 and the nearest key support level is at 104.49. A decisive break above the 107.52 could open a way to 111.82. Alternative scenario: Oil starts to sell off and breaks the bull channel low. This would probably take the market to 100 or so.
Macro Drivers for the USD As the most followed, invested and traded markets for risky assets are priced in the USD it is helpful to understand what macroeconomic factors impact the other side of the equation, the USD. Whether we are trading EURUSD, XAUUSD or US equity CFDs the factors impacting the dollar, the nominator in the equation, have a significant role in the formation of all medium to long-term price action. The following table summarises the most important fundamentals.
Before writing my review, I'd like to mention that I've been working with this broker for about 8 months and I'm not just a random new customer.To get more news about 1primeoption, you can visit wikifx.com official website.
When something goes wrong with TheTradersDomain, you're not sure when and how your problem will be solved. You have access to the support team only by email (no phone number available for the support).
I recently requested for withdrawing 10,000 USD from my account and it's been about 22 days (since 21st Feb - Withdrawal approval day) and I still haven't received my money to this date. It was supposed to arrive in 7-10 business day. They put me in huge financial trouble and I'm paying the cost of this delay every day and they absolutely don't care. They are not even responsible enough to answer me properly. I don't know where the money is and when this problem is going to solve. I sent them a few emails and they only keep saying that they're awaiting to receive information from their processor (?!) Apparently, they use a third-party processor for deposit/withdrawal which means they don't know themselves what's going on.
Long story short, they are not scammers as I've been working with them for a while. They do good job when there is no issue and no specific customer support is needed. But keep in mind that if something goes wrong, they are not reliable and not even responsive/supportive enough to their own customers. You can easily be in a huge trouble like me as you can't rely on them. And the worst part is that when you are in trouble, there is no help or support and you can't do anything just to wait and hope one day your problem will be solved.
1 Star Scammed me too. I attempted to close positions on xau/usd today. They wouldnt allow me to close the position in profit. Shorlty after; the damn candle flew up in a bullish manner and eventually 1 of my 2 positions were called due to margin call (-500 USD). When I contacted customer support, I was told that it was metaquotes fault possibly I was mobile. Truth is Im hard wired into my home router. Currently the 2nd open position sits at -700 USD while they give me the run around. Im totaly disappointed with these guys as I was a huge fan of Ted and wanted to be affiliated with whatever he was doing; its why I joined his brokerage in the 1st place. I am currently considering trying Raja's (Dominion Markets) hoping for less B.S. and run around poop. They say they fight for customers but the only person they fought was me. Completely caught me off guard and a total let down. Save your money guys, its rough getting a good night of sleep when dealing with this broker! Im a real customer (2062229), not a hateful spammer, and I never do reviews but I had to on this issue. Just doesnt sit right with me. When you go to take profit the platform gets questionably shady in my experience. Its looking like a total loss for me most likely (-1200 usd) atleast. What a let down. Make your own decisions, Im just sharing my experience with the broker. This is not spam, this is as real as it gets people. They only thing that saved me was I didnt deposit 12000 usd as I initially planned. God is good. Learn from our mistakes people and save yourself the grief. Trust me. When dealing with this broker, your not dealing with cool and helpful Ted. You have been warned.
Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors as trading on margin/leverage increases the financial risks. The data on the website includes general news, and publications, promotional offer, reviews, our analysis and opinions, and contents provided by third parties, which are intended for informational, educational and research purposes only. Forexing.com The company, employees, subsidiaries, and associates, are not liable nor shall they be held responsible jointly or severally for any loss or damage as link result of reliance on the information provided on this website. The data contained in this website is not necessarily provided in real-time nor is it necessarily accurate.To get more news about 1primeoptions, you can visit wikifx.com official website.
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) that issues statements and decides on the interest rates of the country. Its president is Philip Lowe.
Australian Government and its Department of Finance that implement policies that affect the economy of the country.
The US Government: events as administration statements, new laws and regulations or fiscal policy can increase or decrease the value of the US Dollar and the currencies traded against it, in this case, the Australian Dollar.
Fed, the Federal Reserve of the United States whose president is Jerome Powell. The Fed controls the monetary policy, through active duties such as managing interest rates, setting the reserve requirement, and acting as a lender of last resort to the banking sector during times of bank insolvency or financial crisis.
GDP (Gross Domestic Product), the total market value of all final goods and services produced in a country. It is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which a country's economy is growing or decreasing. Generally speaking, a high reading or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the AUD, while a low reading is negative.
Inflation measured by key indicators as the CPI (Core Price Index) and the PPI (Production Price Index), which reflect changes in purchasing trends.
Current Trade Balance, a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. If a steady demand in exchange for AUD exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.