User blogs

China’s COVID lockdown ripples through financial markets

For more than a decade, Apple has been one of those companies whose earnings continually impress investors and analysts alike, in a near-continuous cycle of good news. In April, that changed.To get more news about HYCM兴业投资, you can visit wikifx.com official website.

Despite the company posting one of the best quarters in its 46-year history, investors were shocked to hear a dire prediction from CEO Tim Cook. Instead of its usual bullish outlook, Apple warned that the company could see sales decline by as much as $US8 billion due to the impact of China’s renewed lockdowns to prevent the spread of COVID.1

Apple is just one of many major companies concerned that China’s zero-COVID policy would have a material impact on their business. Not only is supply of key goods going to be affected by the closure of factories and the ban on transport to affected areas, but the Chinese consumer market has been hit hard by the shutdown, significantly crimping demand and the country’s growth prospects.

According to investment bank Nomura, about a quarter of the country’s population — some 344 million people — are in some form of lockdown. It’s a massive drain on the economy, causing output to fall 3.5% in March, while restaurant consumption is down 16%.2

By May 2, the impact on China’s industrial production had been confirmed. China’s factory output had slowed to its lowest level since February 2020 — effectively the height of the pandemic.3 The scale of China’s heavy-handed response to COVID numbers is now hitting home for markets, and currency markets have been particularly worried.
On April 25, the Renminbi (RMB) slumped against the US dollar as investors digested the severity of the lockdown and feared that the lockdown would spread to Beijing. From being one of the most powerful currencies last year, China’s yuan fell more than 4% in April, its biggest monthly drop in 28 years.4

The stock market has also been hit. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index troughed at more than 20% down year-to-date, while the tech-heavy SZSE Composite Index was down 31%. At the end of April China’s stocks were the worst performing globally, with the exception of Russian indices.5 And as foreign investors sell down their holdings, switching out of the RMB to repatriate to their own currencies, this creates downward price pressure on the RMB.Restrictions in China have stalled demand for the raw materials consumed in Chinese factories, and the so-called commodity currencies linked to them.

As the lockdown took hold and factories shut down, the Australian dollar reversed its upward trajectory and turned comprehensively downward. From a peak of 75.88 USD on April 5, the AUD has fallen nearly 6% as investors contemplated the impact of a shutdown on demand for Australian commodities like iron ore.

Iron ore prices had risen 77% between November 2021 and March this year as factories ramped up to meet growing global demand. But by the middle of March, demand had already started to wane and by May the price of iron ore, as recorded at the port of Qingdao, had fallen 10% and major mining companies like BHP fell in unison — BHP shares lost 10% in just a month.

The New Zealand dollar has also underperformed. As a major trading partner to both Australia and China, its currency shed more than 7% in April.

Note, however, that there are two sides to this equation, and the US dollar is currently outperforming other major currencies given it is seen as a ‘safe haven’ option while the war in Ukraine rages and economic uncertainty lingers. The rate of growth and rising inflation in the US also continue to put upward pressure on interest rates, a key booster of currencies.

buzai232 Aug 14, 11:15PM · Tags: wikifx

Inspection method for quality of black film faced plywood for construction

The black film faced plywood for construction are mainly used in construction sites to speed up the solidification speed and quality of concrete and to ensure that they are formed at the specified locations, but quality inspection is required before construction. The bearing capacity of the product to be inspected first, because in addition to bearing its own weight, the product carries the pressure of concrete.To get more news about film faced plywood, you can visit boosterplywood.com official website.

Therefore, there is a certain standard for the bearing capacity of the black coated board for construction. Products smaller than the load standard cannot be used. When the initial inspection, a sample can be selected and stepped on the foot to see if there is any obvious break. The glue strength is mainly to ensure the subsequent use of the product, that is, the turnover rate, in order to save engineering costs. When testing, you can select a sample and put it into the water for a period of time to see if there is any open glue.

Because one side of the black coated board for construction is in contact with the concrete, in order to ensure the quality of the concrete, the surface needs to be smooth and flat, and there should be no scars or scratches. Only by truly achieving the above three points can it be regarded as a qualified black laminating board for construction.
Okoume BS1088 marine grade plywood is also made of wood. It is made of wood. When transporting plywood, we should pay attention to it. Because these plates are made of wood, the impact is easy to break. Affect its use.

In the choice of trucks, trucks with compartments are preferred because they prevent the panels from being affected by the natural environment, such as sunlight or heavy rain, to ensure the quality of the panels is intact. If you can't use a truck with a carriage, then we should also cover the board with a cover and try to avoid contact with nature.
In addition to the above, we should also ensure that the packaging of the board is intact and that there are no scratches, which will affect its service life. At the same time, plywood is a kind of plate with a wide range of applications. Okoume BS1088 marine plywood needs to be protected in terms of use, cleaning and transportation.

buzai232 Aug 14, 11:01PM · Tags: film faced plywood

A First Look at the Gilbane-Nextera Robotics Platform: “Didge”

As part of its innovation strategy and commitment to advancing construction management, Gilbane with its joint venture partner Nextera Robotics, has developed a transformational artificial intelligence platform utilizing a fleet of autonomous mobile robots. These robots automate construction management, allowing our teams to track project progress and provide exceptional safety monitoring at job sites.To get more news about Tompkins Robotics GRS, you can visit glprobotics.com official website.

The new robotics platform, dubbed “Didge”, provides autonomous “eyes-on-site” by obtaining detailed visual data at construction sites, creating a bridge to the field between design models, digital twins and plans. The name Didge is derived from the platform’s capability to serve as “a digital bridge.” The 24/7 monitoring provided by Didge boosts transparency, monitors safety, and expedites progress tracking. The platform is designed to be customizable and multi-functional to include capabilities such as 360° video capture and daily laser scanning. The platform also serves to monitor environmental conditions and enhance security surveillance on project sites.

The robotics platform is designed to maximize reliability and safety, while minimizing the cost of operation. Didge’s robots are fully autonomous, and the fleet does not require human supervision. Each robot can drive for up to 6 hours, and then park itself at the nearest base station for recharging. To achieve precise localization and navigation through the complex construction site environment, the robots are using an approach similar to self-driving vehicles. Nextera’s autonomous navigation software uses Deep Learning to process data from advanced depth sensors, cameras, lidars, inertial sensors integrated with the robot’s body, making real-time decisions. The Neural Networks for localization, navigation, and mapping are trained on data collected over thousands of miles driving inside active construction sites.
The Didge robot fleet currently includes wheeled and tread versions, capable of scaling stairs or using human-operated hoists. Regardless of the robot type, all are sharing the same “brains” and “eyes”: high-performance edge computers and advanced navigation software, and all are connected to a fleet management cloud.

The data collected via the robotics platform offers a multitude of uses from safety, to progress tracking, and post-completion data for building owners through 360-images delivered on a 3D map. The platform provides a visual archive giving behind the walls look into a building’s infrastructure once the project is complete.

Lana Graf, CEO and founder of Nextera Robotics, describes the potential of the deep learning powered software “to make a long-awaited shift in construction.”

Michael McKelvy, president and CEO of Gilbane Building Company framed the joint-venture partnership as “a tremendous opportunity to deliver greater value to our clients by using robotics to help us build smarter and with the highest levels of safety.”

The robots are currently on site at 225 Wyman, an innovation and life science campus project in Waltham, MA. Gilbane plans to deploy robots to sites across its divisions in the fourth quarter of 2021.

buzai232 Aug 14, 10:43PM · Tags: tompkins robotics grs

Best Architecture Software Programs of 2022

1. Use case
The first thing you’ll need to define is what you’ll be using this software for and why. While many platforms are designed with many use cases in mind, you’ll want to find a solution that specifically speaks to your needs.To get more news about CAD User Guide, you can visit shine news official website.
2. Features
You’ll want to make a list of must-have and nice-to-have features to inform your search.Consider which features deliver the most value in context with your job, target use case, experience, and goals.

Do you need to make 3D visualizations and/or photorealistic renders? Something you can use to quickly generate 2D floor plans? AR presentation tools and animations to wow your clients?
3. Learning curve
The best architecture design software solution is one that you can use. Do you have CAD training or is this new territory for you?

Keep in mind, “easy” or “user-friendly” doesn’t necessarily mean “low-quality.” There are plenty of user-friendly options (Cedreo being one of them) that enable you to create professional-looking designs with minimal effort.

4. Software vs. cloud-based
Installed software might be more feature-rich, but performance depends on your internet connection and computer/server capacity. And while it’s often presented as a one-time purchase, you’re on the hook for upgrades, equipment maintenance, security, and more.

Cloud-based software is more nimble. It’s typically offered as a monthly subscription--allowing you to scale up or down with demand and change providers when needs change. While many SaaS tools cost money, there are fewer risks and little in the way of upfront investments.Products are automatically updated by the provider at regular intervals, so you’ll always have the latest features and big fixes. Plus, you don’t have to worry about hosting or threat monitoring.
5. Cost
What kind of budget are you working with?

You’ll want to nail this down as early as possible, as costs range from free to enterprise-level (like, thousands of dollars a month).If a platform offers tiered pricing, make sure you look closely at the functionality offered at each level.

6. Support
Finally, you’ll want to look at what level of support you’ll get from your provider. Are there tutorials or knowledge bases you can use to learn on your own?Do they offer 24/7 support? On what channels? Will you be able to connect with a human--or does support only consist of self-serve options and bot-based interactions.

If you’re looking for a simple, low-cost solution, you may not need much support at all.If you’re opting for something more complex, support becomes much more important. You might even look for companies that offer personalized onboarding/training to help you get started.

buzai232 Aug 14, 10:32PM · Tags: cad user guide

Is Alexa Compatible Door Lock Good Idea In 2022?

Smart locks are one of the must-have gadgets in today's times. With advancements in technology and design, there are a lot of door lock systems available now with smart features. A standard deadbolt can’t even come close in comparison to smart locks.To get more news about best commercial security company, you can visit securamsys.com official website.

While your simple deadbolt is built upon hardware design, the smart house door lock systems are built upon hardware and software. This is one of the primary reasons people are shifting towards smart house door lock or Alexa compatible door lock systems.
Lockly Smart Door Lock Sytems

Lockly is a high-tech manufacturer of smart house door lock systems that aims to make your home safe and secure by providing you control, versatility, and access. Today, Lockly has evolved into one of the most advanced intelligent locks and property tech cloud service companies.

Lockly successfully offers its services to homeowners, builders, and hotels to build an innovative lock system. By using 128-bit encryption, the most secure encryption method available today, Lockly is committed to offering unmatched security features.

Lockly has been featured numerous times in magazines and has been in the news as one of the best new smart home gadgets companies. The company also offers an unmatched customer support system. Lockly is committed to improving and updating its services and always strives for the better.

Why Lockly Alexa Compatible Smart Locks Best for Your Home?

Lockly Alexa Compatible Door lock systems hand over complete control to you. By integrating your smart house door lock system with Alexa you can control your smart door lock system with voice commands.

A lot of times we are unsure of whether we have locked our homes or not. But, with the help of the Lockly door system, you can simply ask Alexa if the door is locked or not and free yourself from worries.
The following key features of the Lockly smart house door lock system offer more capabilities to the user with no compromise on security.

3D Fingerprint Access: No need for the unnecessary hassle to look for your key after a long day’s work. You can simply enter your home with fingertip access.
Hack-Proof Keypad: The state-of-the-art keypad design has a hack-proof feature to keep all the invaders and strangers at bay.
App-Control: You can control the door lock system with your mobile phone. The application allows you to provide access to your family members and friends even if you are not home.
Smart-Integration: We all love integration, and it is what we offer at Lockly. Lockly offers Alexa compatible door lock systems.
Easy Installation: The hassle-free installation of the smart house door locks system is an added benefit.

buzai232 Aug 14, 10:26PM · Tags: electronic safe lock

Smart home for beginners – what you need to know

Imagine you can use your smartphone to unlock your front door, switch on the lights automatically and ask your virtual assistant to make a cup of coffee. While you’re out and about, your smart thermostat will turn down the air conditioning or heating, and in between, the robot vacuum cleaner will run through your home.To get more news about electronic safe lock, you can visit securamsys.com official website.

Installing and managing smart devices like these is easier than ever. If you want to create your own smart home, we’ll show you how to get started in this post.
How to control your smart home devices
You can control the basic functions of many smart home devices directly via WLAN and an associated mobile app. You just need to connect a new product to the home network, download the corresponding app and – done.

Other smart devices rely on more general wireless protocols like Zigbee and Z-Wave, through which they communicate with a hub. The advantage of a hub is that you can consolidate all your smart home products into one app and control them from there.

And then there are products that work with several standards. These are especially suitable in the beginning, when you don’t yet know exactly how you want to set up your smart home. Focus first on one or two gadgets that particularly appeal to you, and then gradually build the smart home of your dreams.

Voice assistants are an easy and popular way to control your connected devices. As long as they support voice control, they can turn on the lights for you, crank up the air conditioning, make coffee and more.

A smart speaker provides access to voice assistants like Amazon Alexa, Apple Siri, and Google Assistant, depending on which speaker you purchase. Amazon definitely has the widest selection with its diverse collection of Echo speakers. Google offers some Nest speakers, and Apple sells the HomePod mini.If you want a voice assistant that you can also use to control other devices in your smart home, consider a smart display. They work just like smart speakers (so they support voice commands and can play audio), but they also have a screen that you can use to control various smart home devices.

Smart light bulbs allow you to control individual bulbs or groups of bulbs. Using your phone, you can adjust the color, color temperature and brightness of these bulbs to create the ideal environment for your activities. They are as easy to install as regular light bulbs.

An alternative is smart light switches, which you can use to control the existing light fixtures in your home. However, you’d better hire a professional to install such a switch, because high-voltage lines have to be worked with.With intelligent thermostats, you can control your air conditioning and/or heating from your smartphone and automatically adjust the temperature based on the time of day, current location, and the status of other connected devices. Some models use remote sensors to ensure even heating and cooling throughout the home. Installing smart thermostats usually works very easily and requires only a few drillings.

buzai232 Aug 14, 09:59PM · Tags: electronic safe lock

China Is the Wrong Industrial Policy Model for the United States

The adoption of the CHIPS and Science Act is a watershed in U.S. economic policy. It is not because the United States has never practiced industrial policy before; in fact, the early development of semiconductors and the internet was due in large part to Defense Department support. And the U.S. federal and local governments have provided episodic aid for a variety of sectors and companies. It feels, though, as if a new era is beginning in which government support to strengthen the competitiveness of industries—for reasons of business, national security, public health, and the environment—will be seen as more necessary and normal than in the past. But as a new era dawns, it is important to get right both the goals and tools of industrial policy so that it is effective and consistent with international commitments. Otherwise, this change will leave the U.S. economy worse off than before.To get more China finance news, you can visit shine news official website.

The Right Goals
The United States needs to remember that it has not fallen behind China. The best overall measure of technology prowess is the Global Innovation Index. Even though China has been steadily climbing the ranks, the United States, at third, is still substantially ahead of China, at twelfth. Moreover, China’s rise has in part been propelled by a huge jump in patent filings and cited scientific papers, many of which are of low quality. If one looks industry by industry, although the Chinese have made great strides in information and communications technologies, mass transit (such as high-speed rail), life sciences, and a few others, there is almost no sector where China is the dominant technology leader, unlike the United States. Moreover, if one were to consider this “race” in terms of coalitions of likeminded countries, the United States and its Western allies from Europe and Asia are cumulatively even further ahead.

More important, the decision of whether to utilize industrial policy should be driven primarily not by whether the gap between the United States and China is narrowing, but by whether greater government intervention can produce more positive results than a more relatively laissez-faire approach for the country’s current needs. The United States does not need to “catch up”—the typical justification for industrial policy—but rather needs to accelerate an economic transformation for itself and the globe in an era when transnational cooperation for research, production, and consumption is less assured because of both geostrategic tensions and rising energy and transportation costs.

The Wrong Means
Equally important, although China’s recent progress is a motivating force for this shift, China’s state capitalist system is a bad model for the United States to draw on in determining how to proceed. In fact, it actually is often dysfunctional for China, too. There are at least four Chinese practices that the United States should avoid.

First, as CSIS documented in a recent study, the Chinese government spends an enormous amount on industrial policy . By the study’s calculations, in 2019 China spent the equivalent of 1.73 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP) in fiscal outlays, tax breaks, below-market credit, and other kinds of subsidies. Far back in second place was South Korea, at 0.67 percent of GDP. The United States spent only 0.39 percent of GDP. The study’s original estimate for China was extremely conservative; had the team modified its assumptions and included more components, such as government procurement (which was originally left out because of difficulty obtaining the requisite data), the Chinese figure would be closer to 4.9 percent of GDP, over 12 times the U.S. figure. Moreover, China is relatively indiscriminate about how it spends. Although the Made in China 2025 plan, issued in 2015, highlighted 10 industries, in reality Chinese industrial policy lavishes billions on dozens of sectors, with the hope that something will pay off. The result is a financial system ladened with debt that is mortgaging the country’s future. The United States should not see this difference as a “gap” that needs to be closed. America needs to lead in industries, not industrial policy spending.

Second, spending in China is heavily affected by political loyalties, not rational economic analysis. As a result, a disproportionate amount of industrial policy spending goes to inefficient state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and cronies. It should surprise no one that China’s push into semiconductors has been slowed by cash going to unqualified companies that dumped money into real estate projects as well as massive corruption in the firm managing the national semiconductor fund.

Third, China overemphasizes the development of shiny physical technologies that look good in photo ops. China’s achievements are displayed in tall skyscrapers, supercomputers, a space station, and new electric vehicles. But this preference for visible products has come at the expense of insufficient attention to the most important source of future economic growth—strengthening human capital. Millions of students in urban China graduate with degrees in science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM), but the educational system and overall political environment do not nurture creativity. For example, what lesson might China’s potential entrepreneurs take from the silencing of Alibaba founder Jack Ma? Equally important, even though absolute poverty has been reduced in rural China, educational attainment in the countryside, where over half of China’s youth live, is woefully inadequate. As a result, almost all of China’s recent economic growth has come from increased investment and essentially none has come from productivity gains, the source of true progress.

Fourth, China frames its industrial policy in highly nationalistic terms, a zero-sum contest pitting its own companies and economy against everyone else. This fear of external vulnerability has grown dramatically under Xi Jinping’s rule, as technological self-sufficiency, as opposed to raising China’s position in global value chains, has become China’s paramount industrial policy goal. The result is growing tensions with trading partners, particularly technology leaders, and slower growth due to pursuing strategies inconsistent with China’s comparative advantage.

The CHIPS and Science Act appears to avoid these four pitfalls. Its topline spending figure, $280 billion, is spread out over five years, so it will barely raise overall U.S. industrial policy spending as a share of the economy. Nor will it detract from the nimble U.S. financial system being the primary identifier and supporter of new technologies, industries, and jobs. Instead of indiscriminately throwing money around, support is focused on semiconductors and a small number of other critical technologies, such as energy storage, advanced computing, and nuclear physics. A great deal of attention in the new law is paid to developing talent through the U.S. educational system and workforce training. Foreign companies from likeminded countries, such as Samsung and TSMC, are fully eligible for investment support in semiconductor manufacturing. Although the law has several elements aimed at strengthening national security, the specific restrictions targeting China—making funding to companies conditional on their not investing in advanced chip manufacturing in China—seem narrowly focused to avoid massive disruptions in global supply chains and innovation networks.

Ensuring that this law and the other federal and local laws that will inevitably follow are implemented to maximize their benefits and minimize potential downsides will take continuous vigilance from Congress, the General Accounting Office, other executive branch agencies, the media, industry analysts, think tanks, and other countries.

Better Models
Although China provides lessons the United States should avoid, there are other economies that have done a better job of utilizing industrial policy in a more constructive manner. Chief among them are East Asia’s market democracies—Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan. Although each has had its excesses that have generated substantial debt and substantial ill will with trading partners for discriminatory practices, their efforts have become more market-friendly and generated less friction with others as they have approached the technological frontier. They have also been able to make globalization and domestic job creation work hand in hand, thereby reducing the hollowing out of their manufacturing sectors.

A case in point is Taiwan’s emergence as the world’s dominant semiconductor manufacturing hub, accounting for well over 60 percent of the global market. This outcome was the result of a combination of three forces: (1) targeted financial and regulations to provide a nurturing environment for research and development, talent development, and dedicated manufacturing; (2) driven entrepreneurs able to mobilize resources and talent to develop a unique specialty (“pureplay” foundries, which are dedicated to producing chips designed by others); and (3) good timing (the rise of production costs in the United States and emergence of China as a key assembler in global information and communications technology supply chains) that permitted Taiwan to create this niche in the global economy. While the United States looks to strengthen its own chip fabrication capacity, it will also need, as Taiwan has done, to explore new technologies and business models that address critical needs and take advantage of emerging opportunities.

buzai232 Aug 14, 09:51PM · Tags: shanghai news

Shanghai suggests lockdown may end soon as pressure grows on China’s ‘zero-Covid’ policy

Officials in Shanghai, which has been on lockdown for weeks as officials battle China’s worst coronavirus outbreak since the start of the pandemic, said Friday that they aimed to achieve zero cases outside quarantine by May 20. To get more news about shanghai pandemic, you can visit shine news official website.

That could allow restrictions to be eased in the city of 26 million people, where residents have complained of food shortages and mental health challenges as the lockdown has been extended multiple times.

As the rest of the world moves to live with the virus, China’s Covid strategy is drawing more scrutiny, including rare criticism from Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director general of the World Health Organization, who said it was not sustainable in the face of the highly transmissible omicron variant.Considering the behavior of the virus, I think a shift will be very important,” he said at a news conference this week, adding that he had discussed the issue with Chinese experts.

His comments came after President Xi Jinping reaffirmed his commitment to China’s Covid strategy, which has kept cases and deaths far below those in the United States and other countries. A shift in course could threaten his plan to secure an unprecedented third term at a Chinese Communist Party congress later this year, analysts say.

At a meeting led by Xi last week, the party’s top leaders pledged to “unswervingly adhere to the general policy of ‘dynamic zero-Covid,’ and resolutely fight against any words and deeds that distort, doubt or deny our country’s epidemic prevention policies.” The message sent the Shanghai government scrambling to double down on anti-Covid measures, as some residents who had been allowed limited movement for the first time in weeks were ordered back into their homes. Others reported hazmat-suited workers known as “Big Whites” forcing their way into people’s homes to carry out disinfection and carting off whole buildings of people to quarantine if one resident tested positive.

Tedros’ comments were swiftly suppressed by Chinese censors, who removed a post from the United Nations account on Weibo, a popular Chinese social media platform, and blocked users from searching for his name.

Asked about his comments, foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said China’s Covid policy was based on “national realities” and that officials were adjusting anti-epidemic measures based on changing conditions.

“We hope relevant people will look at China’s Covid policy in an objective and rational light, learn more about the facts and refrain from making irresponsible remarks,” he said at a news conference Wednesday.Zhao pointed to a study published this week in the journal Nature, which said an uncontrolled omicron outbreak in China could result in a “tsunami” of cases and 1.55 million deaths, mostly among unvaccinated people 60 and older. Chinese leaders fear a repeat of this year’s deadly omicron outbreak in its territory of Hong Kong, which like mainland China had a low vaccination rate among older people.

Jin Dong-yan, a virologist at the University of Hong Kong, said the model in the Nature study is at odds with the real-world data coming out of Shanghai, where there have been more than 600,000 cases since March 1 and fewer than 600 deaths.

buzai232 Aug 14, 06:23PM · Tags: shanghai news
FX volatility ahead as central banks walk tightrope

They are trying to pull off a soft landing, hiking interest rates to slow inflation without tipping their economies into recession. It's a near impossible task, according to former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, who found that since 1955 in the US, there has never been a quarter with price inflation above 4% and unemployment below 5% that was not followed by a US recession within the next two years.1 To get more news about DBG Markets盾博, you can visit wikifx.com official website.

Six months ago, commentators were calling on US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to stave off surging inflation with interest rate rises. Back then, he, and other central bank policymakers, asserted that inflation was a transitory phenomenon caused by COVID-19 lockdowns, and a release of pent up consumer demand. But inflation readings remained stubborn and with other factors like the war in Ukraine driving up food and fuel prices, central banks have had to jack up interest rates hard and fast to prevent prices from spiralling out of control.2

The 1.5% rise in US interest rates so far this year seems to be biting much harder than many had predicted, with the Atlanta branch of the US Federal Reserve forecasting a 2.1% drop in GDP for the second quarter. That would be on top of the 1.6% contraction in the first three months of 2022.

That's a forecast, rather than official data, but if accurate it would meet one criteria for calling a recession - two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

As seen in 2008, if the US does start to tip into a recession, it is likely that other countries may follow and effectively managing currency risk in this environment would be increasingly important.
In June, the World Bank issued its 176 page economic analysis - Global Economic Prospects. It made for ugly reading. The bank slashed its forecast for global growth from 5.7% in 2021 to 2.9% this year, the sharpest deceleration in a post-recession recovery in 80 years. And there wasn't any sugar coating about the future in the report's second paragraph;

"Amid the war in Ukraine, surging inflation, and rising interest rates, global economic growth is expected to slump in 2022. Several years of above-average inflation and below-average growth are now likely, with potentially destabilizing consequences for low- and middle-income economies. It's a phenomenon-stagflation-that the world has not seen since the 1970s."With the three major drivers of the global economy all showing signs of slowing, the global outlook is becoming more uncertain. In a switch to risk-off sentiment, financial markets are on high alert. US equities, sold off in times of economic shock and uncertainty, had their worst start to a year since 1962 with the Dow Jones down by 21%, S&P 500 down 20.6% by June end. The Nasdaq's fall of 29% year to date is its worst ever.

US government bond yields are another sign of a spooked market. Bond yields move in inverse relation to prices. The benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield dropped to its lowest level since May as investors sought the safety of US government bonds, driving up bond prices.12
The US dollar has already been rallying thanks to the more hawkish (aggressive) tone set by the US Federal Reserve on interest rates. Now global slowdown fears are adding momentum to the dollar's upward trajectory as investors look to the US dollar as a safe haven currency in the event of a slowdown. So far the dollar has had its best start to the year since 2010 according to the Wall Street Journal's Dollar Index, increasing 8.7% against a basket of 16 currencies.13

Other currencies, like the euro, are struggling. The war in Ukraine has meant the prospects for the eurozone are less certain. Interest rate hikes, while coming, have not yet eventuated, muting demand for the currency as investors look to higher-yielding currencies for better returns. The euro is down 7.5% against the dollar so far this year.

The Japanese yen is another safe haven currency in times of stress but here particularly the ultra-accommodative monetary policy is having a strong impact. While the Fed has been steadily raising rates, the Bank of Japan has been opting to wait and see. The width of that interest rate differential has helped the US dollar soar 18% against the yen this year.

Slow or backward global growth is bad news for commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar, which are closely linked to demand for key exports. These currencies are already being sold off based on the fear of global recession, both hitting 2-year lows in July.

buzai232 Aug 12, 08:00PM · Tags: wikifx
RISK AVERSION DRAGS GBP/JPY 1% LOWER

The recent weakness of the US dollar, the decline of commodity prices and the recovery of equity indices is a relief for global investors. But does this indicate the market has turned a corner or is it just a short-term rally within a bear market?To get more news about TMGM外汇, you can visit wikifx.com official website.

US stock indexes have outperformed European and Asian recently. The benchmark US S&P 500 is down circa 13% year-to-date having been as much as 23% lower in mid-June. Yesterday, stocks were volatile after US manufacturing data from ISM topped expectations in a signal that price pressures on companies in the world's largest economy could be easing. Although central banks continue to tighten monetary policy, there has been a notable loosening in financial conditions. Expected policy rates have been trimmed back markedly and the expected peak of interest rates in multiple regions has also dropped. US rate cuts are now being priced in for 2023. However, this is mainly because recession risks are rising, which the bond market is warning with the inversion of the 10 year/2-year curve and the more significant 10 year/3-month curve on the brink.
Demand for safe haven assets has dragged GBP/USD back from a 5-week high recorded yesterday. Market jitters are largely related to China's warning about military action if US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi visits Taiwan as planned.

Chinese fighter jets are flying close to Taiwan ahead of Ms Pelosi's visit as the US and Taiwan brace for a potential violent reaction. Although the visit isn't in the official itinerary, there is speculation Ms Pelosi will meet Taiwan's president tomorrow, which Beijing views as provocative. This could trigger a response from the US Air Force and Navy and this uncertainty alone is driving safe-haven flows into the Japanese yen, whilst hurting risk-friendly assets like stocks and currencies like the British pound.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised interest rates by 50 basis points to 1.85% - the highest level since April 2016 and in line with expectations. The Australian dollar has weakened though as the RBA announced that future hikes will not follow a pre-set path and instead be guided by data.

GBP/AUD has jumped nearly 1% higher already this morning stretching further north of the near 3.5-year low clocked just two weeks ago. Since April this year, GBP/AUD has oscillated within 6-cent range between A$1.72 and A$1.78. Today's price action again highlights that rate hikes will not always result in a strong positive currency reaction.

buzai232 Aug 12, 07:55PM · Tags: wikifx
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