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XAGUSD has corrected quite a bit lower and could be ready to retrace some of the recent down move. This market, therefore, goes on my watchlist. I will give you the key technical levels now and a rough idea I want to see taking place in this market before I’m willing to consider a long trade. I will alert you in Telegram if I am at my desk at the time of this market making significant moves. XAGUSD could be a long candidate above 24.53 and a break above the 24.88 resistance would be short-term bullish. Look for a move to 25.04 (T1) if the bulls are willing to bid this market higher above 24.88 (always look for price action confirmation!). If the market rallies decisively above the 25.04 resistance, the market could move even higher but that’d probably take some weakness in equities markets. Alternative scenario: Bears push the market below the 24.53 support and a move to 24.25 could be in the cards.
USOIL is showing some signs of strength after retracing back to 50% Fibonacci level. A breakout from a bearish channel points to a reversal in the price of oil. On a break of the 96.74 resistance level, my T1 for oil is at 97.66 – 98.25 range and T2 at 100.80 – 101.30 range. These are not predictions on how far USOIL could rally but rather TA based estimations of probable moves. Alternative scenario: USOIL fails to attract buyers above the 96.74 key level and trades back down to 94 or so.
USNGAS is a market that for obvious reasons trades with oil to a certain degree. Now that USOIL is showing signs of strength USNGAS looks like it wants to follow the oil market. My T1 for USNGAS is at the 4.792 – 4.838 range on the condition that the market can break above the 4.726 resistance. The second target (T2) is at 4.910 – 4.930. An alternative scenario: Bears start hitting bids in oil and gas markets and USNGAS fails to challenge the 4.726 resistance successfully sending the market down to the 4.58 – 4.63 range.
Macro Drivers for the USD As the most followed, invested and traded markets for risky assets are priced in the USD it is helpful to understand what macroeconomic factors impact the other side of the equation, the USD. Whether we are trading EURUSD, XAUUSD or US equity CFDs the factors impacting the dollar, the nominator in the equation, have a significant role in the formation of all medium to long-term price action. The following table summarises the most important fundamentals.
The highlight for the week will be the Fed's monetary policy decision. The market is generally expected to maintain the $120 billion bond purchase scale, but the Fed may remain cautious because the recovery of Covid is an obvious concern, and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell (Jerome Powell) has made it clear that he hopes to look at employment for further progress.To get more news about scopemarkets, you can visit wikifx.com official website.
At the Jackson Hole seminar, Powell stated that "we still have a lot of work to do to get the maximum employment", and since August's employment numbers were clearly disappointing (235,000 vs. a consistent 733,000), he will remember to postpone the setting Until there is better news. We expect the announcement to be released in November, but for now, we can only expect cautious optimism and more explicit support for this year's reduction. However, it should be emphasized that this decision is completely independent of the decision to raise interest rates there is no way to automatically raise interest rates.
U.S Fed preview-what we can expect?
As the Covid cases seem to have peaked and the labour market is more constrained by labour shortages than weak demand, we expect the QE expansion announcement to be released in November. At present, we can only look forward to the cautious optimism in the statement and more clear support for the throttling of Jerome Powell's press conference this year. We also want to emphasize that this decision is completely different from the decision to raise interest rates-there is no automatic path to higher interest rates.
The new forecast will show that as inflation is revised upwards, growth will be revised slightly downwards. The big story may be the Fed's single-point forecast of interest rate hikes. Currently, 7 out of 18 officials use 2022 as the starting point for their salary increase, and one or two may advance their forecasts to 2022. We suspect that the current median will remain at 2023, but this will be a close decision.
The interest rate market will focus on three things. First of all, as long as there is any sign that it is about to taper. Second, any rearrangement of points. Third, any improvement on the repurchase transaction. The first one is about the back end. Although it is not expected to announce its withdrawal, any nod may push up long-term interest rates. The second is more front-end influence. At present, the 2-year return in the 20bp area contains the smallest risk of interest rate hikes and will continue into the third quarter of 2023. If you move this forward one year, then the 2-year discount looks wrong. The upward pressure on 2-year returns should continue. This is the most likely outcome of that meeting and will have a major impact.
The U.S dollar is back on track for gains as it begins the week higher ahead of the U.S Fed decision, traders are eyeing a signal on tapering.
The U.S. dollar also appreciated against the New Zealand dollar last week. NZD/USD fell after testing the falling wedge-shaped ceiling, which opened the door to the floor. Although the outlook remains bearish within the boundaries formed by the chart, the pattern is typical.
Ahead of the Fed decision, the pair will be eyeing the support level (Blue) for a downside direction, the opposite can happen if the price moves above the wedge ceiling.
The commodity-linked currency also got a boost from the rising price on the commodity market with the crude oil currently rallying higher after yesterday sell-off associated with the
The market continues to speculate about the solution between complete collapse or the Chinese government bailout. For markets that are worried about contagion, the extent of management collapse will be a focus. The coupon payment for Evergrande’s bonds will mature on Thursday.
commodity currencies receive the result of the election showed that the current Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had won, d some support, as risk-sensitive assets took a breather from yesterday’s carnage. Crude oil rose slightly, helping the Canadian dollar offset the previous day’s decline, and the election results also increased the increase.
The CADJPY sell-off yesterday threatened to break below the support level of 84.96 and the zone proved to be stronger as the market formed a rejection to make up some gains. As the mood shifted and energy prices recovery, the Canadian dollar quickly recovered, but we returned to a downturn. This is not only related to today’s Canadian elections but also related to general risk sentiment and global growth concerns. Oil prices are also hovering around $70, compared to the delta lows of $62. If the CADJPY manage to break above 85.97 we could see further gains.
Wednesday’s FOMC meeting will bring the gold market under control, as traders will contact Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to let them know more clearly when the central bank will cut its $120 billion monthly bond purchase program. The U.S. dollar has accepted the offer in the past few weeks because Chairman Powell is expected to provide at least some hints of interest rate cuts, but since this appears to be fully priced, any restrictive disappointment may cause the U.S. dollar to sell off and push up the price of gold. However, any upward movement may be short-lived, as the contraction is a question of when not whether the dollar will rise in the coming months.
Gold fell to the $1,758 area during the reversal and has now entered the positive area for the third consecutive day. The U.S. dollar continued its highest level of retracement since August 23 on the previous trading day and maintained its defensive momentum in the first half of Tuesday’s trading session. In turn, this is seen as a key factor to moderately boost dollar-denominated commodities, including gold. However, a combination of factors inhibits any significant upward trend, and some caution is required before preparing for any further appreciation trend.
A further move to the upside could see the price look to test the level of $1832. The opposite can happen if the breaks support level as the price can drop the lows of March 2021.
We've all heard the saying, "if you have a job you love, you never have to work a day in your life." But if you are transitioning into full-time trading, it can be hard to work a job while building up your trading account.To get more news about blufx, you can visit wikifx.com official website.
It's important not to cut yourself off entirely from a reliable income source. That way, if your trading career doesn't work out, you'll still have something to fall back on. However, working long hours isn't always sustainable for healthy traders. So - what's the answer? What are the best day jobs for traders?
By nature of their expertise and flexibility, part-time day jobs work great for those looking to find a job that will help you support your trading career. Here are four day job options that can fit around your trading.
If you live in a big city, chances are there's an app that lets you drive your car as a taxi. You can do it as a side-hustle and earn. So, if you don't mind driving other people around, it could be great to start on Uber or Lyft. These services pay their drivers between 75% and 90% of their fare, which means you keep more of your money than with a traditional cab.
Benefits: As a cab contractor, you may set your own hours and trade hourly pay for flexibility. The company assigns contractors a predetermined number of hours to work. You have the freedom to work as little or as much as you choose during your shift. Being your own boss allows you to trade hourly work for freedom! Most drivers start with Uber or Lyft since it is free - unlike becoming a regular cab driver.
This is the best fit for you if: You already have the skills to drive, know how to use your smartphone, and live in an area where Lyft/Uber operates.
If you have a passion for travel, it's possible to turn your knowledge of specific regions into a paid tour guide. You can work with an established company or start your own business. If you have local expertise about attractions, restaurants, and hotels in a particular place, consider sharing your tips with other travelers through an online platform like TripAdvisor.
Benefits: Being a tour guide is enjoyable and well-paid. There are no scams, no late-night phone calls, and no bosses or coworkers to deal with. It can be a tremendously enjoyable career that allows you to travel for free... yeah, free trips to many intriguing destinations! With these part-time jobs, you may make a fortune from your passion for travel or change your hometown through tourism.
This is the best fit for you if: You have a knack for conversation, a good sense of humour, and a passion for your local area.
Freelancing is a great way to build a portfolio of business experience and potentially make some money on top of that. An excellent way to get started as a freelancer is finding something you enjoy doing and then pitching different online businesses with your skillset. If you have specific skills that aren't in demand as a freelancer, try using those skills as bartering material for other products or services.
There are several websites and marketplaces built around connecting people with these sorts of opportunities. For example, Upwork and Fiverr allow you to work remotely in almost any niche. You can sign up for an account at no cost, pitch with your skill set such as writing, graphic design, virtual assistant, accounting and bookkeeping, and more!
Working as a waiter or waitress is ideal for traders because of the flexibility in hours. You can work evenings, afternoons, or any odd hours - ideal if you have busy market schedules. Many waiters/waitresses are paid per hour, so even if the business does slow down or if the company picks up, this job can still be rewarding financially. This job also does not require any prior experience, so you don't need to spend money on extra certifications.
All of these technologies put control of the offer process into the hands of the buyer and their agent. What we mean by control is the medium in which the offer is delivered and the process in which it is negotiated. By submitting an offer using ABC technology, the buyer's agent is expecting the list agent to grasp a technology they may have never used before. On first thought this may not seem like a big deal, but what if a listing receives multiple offers and each offer comes over in a different format utilizing a different technology? Each offer needs to be responded to on a different platform or utilizing a different technology. This is where we feel all of these technologies are missing the boat.
Our thinking is that the listing agent should be the one controlling the offer process. The listing agent should dictate the medium in which they receive and negotiate all their offers for a property. This will allow them to have all their offers in one standard format that they are familiar with and allows for easy management and reply to the submitting agent. In multiple offer situations this will allow for much more organization and efficiency. It will also alleviate errors because the listing agent will be familiar with the technology they are using to negotiate the offer.
Further, we believe the technology adopted by the listing agent to receive their offers should not require the buyer's agent to sign up for the service. On the buyer's agents end the process should be simple and easy with no sign up required. They should not be forced to learn a whole new technology just to submit an offer.
This ensures they receive all their offers on all their listings in the same format. They can search and sort their offers by any criteria, reply to all submitting agents at one time, ensure complete offers by requiring fields and documents be included with the offer and more. Buyers' agents submitting offers do not need to sign up for or download any software. The process of submitting an offer is as easy if not easier that submitting an email with an attachment.
The composite reading rose to 51.7 from 48.9 – which indicates an overall expansion in activity across the two sectors. Chinas Caixin Global released its own report for manufacturing activity, which crossed the wires at 50.0 versus an expected 49.5. Caixin surveys small to medium sized firms compared to larger firms in the NBS survey. The data may show that smaller firms have skirted the larger impact of policy measures to limit pollution and curb energy usage.
AUD/USD gave a moderate upside reaction to the data, with traders appearing to focus on the rosy services sector data versus the drop into contractionary territory in the manufacturing sector. The Chinese government has favored support to consumers rather than factories and industry in recent months. The People‘s Bank of China (PBOC) shifted into a more supportive stance following the Evergrande Group’s missed interest payments.
The initial news wires over China‘s second largest real estate developer and its inability to service its debt obligations roiled global markets earlier this month. However, traders appear to have overestimated contagion risks at first. The PBOC’s amped up support has also helped to cool jitters, with increased liquidity injections through 7- and 14-day reverse repos.
China is also facing a potential energy crisis as power grid demand rises alongside a commensurate rise in energy fuel products like natural gas and coal. Beijing is responding by capping the rates at which power plants can charge customers. At the same time, policymakers are curbing production across factories to cool demand. This will likely keep manufacturing activity suppressed for the time being. On the other hand, these decisions bode well for Chinas consumer base – which may underpin services activity.
AUD/USD prices are rebounding modestly after piercing below a level of support during this weeks risk-off trading. Bulls are unlikely to take the prior support level unless upside momentum accelerates substantially, with prices down near a full percent on the week. MACD is tracking lower on the 8-hour time frame, suggesting healthy downside momentum.
The surge of energy prices is conducive to the economy and currency of energy exporters. Therefore, CAD performed well in the last week. It is estimated that the short-term USD/CAD is likely to reach the level at 1.2500 even 1.2422. However, it is worth noticing that the fallout from this surge is the fast escalating inflation in the U.S. instead of the transient one implied by Powell. The inflation data announced by the U.S. in the future may grow dramatically, thus increasing the pressure on the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the field of interest-rate hikes and leading to its introduction ahead of schedule next year. If this comes true, USD will get benefits. The U.S.10-year government bond interest rate has reached 1.5% plus, which indicates that the financial market has predicted that the U.S. has a chance to bring hikes forward.
The 2021 German federal election concluded where no party has pocketed over 30% of total votes. Hence, the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) that secured 25.7% of votes plans to lead a grand coalition with the Greens and the Free Democratic Party (FDP). SPD is less left-leaning than the Greens, whereas FDP is right-leaning, according to their political platforms generally comprised of tax hikes and the increase in welfare expenditure. Capitalists in Germany who disagree with these policies have taken the lead in transferring their assets to Switzerland for tax avoidance in the future. The financial market also concerns that the political platform of SPD may give rise to a fiscal crisis in the country. Consequently, the trend of EUR can remain under pressure because of an uncertain political prospect.
The situation where EUR is under pressure is favorable to DXY. I am prudently optimistic about the trend of DXY in the fourth quarter. However, USD may face a different story. For example, if the pressure of increasing interest rates in Canada and New Zealand is heavier than that in the U.S., their currencies will perform neck and neck in the market. As for USD/EUR, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, and USD/AUD, the market boasts a bullish trend from my perspective.
A strong volatility is expected to occur on the prices of EURUSD this week with the release of the outcome of the German Federal elections. The common expectation is a sharp decline. Aside this, there are equally a lot of other Economic events to affect this pair (EURUSD) this new week. For instance, the German and French consumer confidence figures are to be released on Tuesday, followed by Eurozone sentiment numbers on Wednesday. Next will be the inflation data for France and Germany to be released on Thursday and then the Eurozone as a whole on Friday. The data from these Economic activities is expected to weigh down on Euro especially with the consideration that the talk for the tightening of monetary policy by the European Central Bank remains far away in the future. The US dollar is therefore expected to outshine Euro in strength this new week following the admission by Powell last week that tapering was imminent for the US Fed Reserve. We expect further pullback on EURUSD to the next support at $1.12360.
During the last week Fed meeting, Powell had pointed out that the conditions for tapering have been fully met. Hence the committee were set to provide the format for tapering from the next FOMC meeting in November. According to Powell, if the economy remains on track then the tapering of asset purchases could be concluded by the middle of next year. This would mean a reduction in the rate of bond purchase by the Federal Reserve leading to an increase interest rate. This will definitely favor the US dollar and Weaken the demand for the precious metal gold. Equally with the global gradual decrease in the Covid cases, investors will be all the more swayed to divert to other investments involving dollar rather than storing their wealth in Gold. Hence, we expect a further decline for Gold down to the support at $1707.00 in the coming weeks. The general outlook for the precious metal is bearish.
Crude Oil has sowered higher last week with great improvement in Economic development following Powell's Speech and the happy decline in the new cases of the general pandemic. Crude Oil has sowered higher and is currently overbought judging from the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The price is currently on a strong resistance at $73.84 per barrel. There are currently strong Fundamental back up that the price may break this current resistance.
On Tuesday for instance, OPEC is expected to release its annual world oil outlook. Members from the cartel recently noted that shortfalls in natural gas are forcing energy consumers to look for substitutes, such as oil. As such, OPEC could boost demand expectations. Thereby increasing the demand for Crude oil. Equally, the next meeting of the coalition is scheduled for October 4th. However, should the price fail to break this current resistance this week, then we may see a retest of the previous support at $69.00. Should the bulls succeed in breaking this present resistance then look for further upsides at $85.30
So, coming to the pair Analysis there are so many pairs in the money spot which takes my interest from the pair so today I will wait for a confirmation entry and wait for London open to take the entry.
So, my First pair is GBP AUD.
we can see the last sellers who made LL and that sellers still active with the pullback coming in set 1 set 2 designs. That‘s a good sign but as it’s a higher time frame pullback timing will not be easy. So what I will be waiting for is to make a spike and people stopping out than react to the trap and go down.
My next pair is NZDUSD. For a 15 3 buy as Higher time frame still sell and buyers came strong so we can expect a buy to recent high. If those buyers struggle than the sell will be on depending on correlation.
Next thing about Aud pairs I am interested in AUDCHF EURAUD AUDJPY BUT all are in money spot that makes me little concern.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3836 up 0.04% % for the day.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback performance against its six major rivals, trades below 93.00 with 0.01% losses ahead of the US Nonfarm payrolls data.
The US 10-year Treasury yields drift lower to trade at 1.29% down 0.16% for the day.
The US Weekly Jobless claims fell to its pandemic level. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment fell to 340K below the market consensus of 345K whereas the Unit lobor costs jumped an annualized 1.3% in the Q2 as compared to an expectation of a 1% rise. The upbeat data failed to uplift the greenback from the lower levels.
On the other hand, the sterling gains on the recent optimism surrounding Brexit. The British Government demanded to rewrite a controversial section of the Brexit withdrawal agreement that might provide Brussels sweeping powers over UK state-aid decisions to which prominent EU legal experts have lended their support.
As for now, investors turn their attention to the critical US Nonfarm payrolls and Unemployment data to take fresh trading impetus.